Beyond the Saleyards: Lamb and mutton divide an emerging trend

There is a clear divide emerging between the lamb and mutton markets, particularly when comparing WA with national trends.

Nationally, lighter lamb categories have undergone a sharper market correction in recent weeks.

Some regions have seen more pronounced declines than others, creating an opportunity for second-tier feeder buyers to re-enter the market.

This renewed activity is beginning to provide underlying support to the feeder lamb segment.

In WA, this trend is evident but to a lesser degree.

The feeder market remains underpinned, and while major price declines appear unlikely in the short term, there’s likely a three to four-week window for feeders to take advantage of current softer pricing before harvest activities draw labour and focus elsewhere.

The mutton market continues to demonstrate a cautious and steadying trend nationally, while within WA, tight supplies of suitable slaughter stock remain evident.

Given current throughput levels, it’s unlikely that mutton availability will lift significantly in the short term, keeping a firmer tone to local pricing.

This constrained supply dynamic is expected to continue influencing both the short and medium-term outlook.

If this firmness persists alongside renewed feeder demand, processors are likely to face reduced supply pressure within three to four weeks, potentially helping stabilise prices through the summer period.

Processing throughput trends

Recent processing data reinforces these trends.

During the past four weeks, national lamb throughput is down 10 per cent compared with the same period last year.

WA lamb throughput is broadly in line with last year’s levels.

National mutton throughput is down 6 per cent for the similar period.

WA mutton throughput has fallen a significant 30 per cent, reflecting tighter local supply and stronger processor competition.

These figures align closely with what is being observed across WA saleyards, strong mutton demand, steady-to-firm pricing, and resilient feeder activity despite recent lamb price corrections.

Price indicators

National Mutton Indicator: 685¢/kg HSCW, down 85¢ month-on-month, and up 331¢ year-on-year.

WA mutton: 656¢/kg, up 17¢ month-on-month and up 461¢ year-on-year.

National Trade Lamb Indicator: 1064¢/kg, down 93¢ month-on-month and up 234¢ year-on-year.

WA trade lamb: 968¢/kg, down 101¢ month-on-month and up 371¢ year-on-year.

The data highlights a widening contrast between lamb and mutton market conditions, with mutton supported by constrained supply, while lamb continues to adjust amid variable seasonal and feeder and processor demand.

Overall, these trends point to cautious optimism: firm mutton values, feeder demand re-emerging, and potential for improved market balance into late spring and early summer.