Ukraine war: Russia bid to freeze Ukraine and Europe into submission, while nuclear accident worries grow

Russia has an ally in the sub-zero temperatures that will accompany the onset of winter in eastern Europe. Vladimir Putin is intent on making it as cold and deadly as possible for Ukrainians, who are racing to prepare for temperatures that frequently dip to minus 6.5C. With a chokehold on energy supplies to much of Europe, the dictator can also test the resolve of Ukraine’s allies as their own populations shiver and balk at the consequences. Can it force a face-saving exit from the disastrous war that would see Russia retain the ground it has seized in the east and south? Such an outcome would enable Putin to convince Russians that his “special military operation” had succeeded. It would also buy the somewhat humiliated superpower time to replenish its depleted forces and modernise its military hardware. For Ukrainians, this would be an impossible pill to swallow, to lose so much territory, even if a compromise brought an end to all the carnage and bloodshed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky knows his courageous and highly competent forces can only continue to repel the invader with more support and material aid from the United States, the UK, the European Union and other international friends, including Australia. Any dip or wavering in that support would be ruinous. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed since Russian tanks and infantry poured into the country on February 24. The United Nations estimates 1600 civilians have died, with some 140,000 residential buildings destroyed or damaged. The invasion sparked Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War Two. More than 12 million people have been displaced, with 6.2 million seeking refuge in other European countries, with neighbouring Poland taking 1.25 million refugees. Some 6.3 million Ukrainians have had to flee fighting for safer parts of the country. In just five months, almost one-third of Ukraine’s population have been forced from their homes. Turning up the heat There are frantic efforts across the nation to prepare for winter. With powerplants and substations targeted by Russian missiles, it’s about accumulating and hiding stockpiles of firewood, fuel, coal, water and other essential provisions. Forests are being chopped down to meet the emergency needs, should more critical infrastructure be destroyed. Forges are churning out tens of thousands of wood-burning stoves. The work has to be done now, or it will be too late. “All cities are preparing for a hard winter,” Andriy Sadovyi, the mayor of Lviv told The New York Times “Russia has turned off the gas to our neighbours, and they are trying to pressure us, too,” he said. “Our goal is survival. We need to be ready.” Gas is of vital importance. “Some 80 per cent of households rely on a centralised gas supply,” cites a recent report by the US-based Kennan Institute. “Any interruption of the gas supply in winter would pose a threat to millions of households. “As of early June, about 5,000 km of gas pipelines had been damaged, along with 3,800 gas distribution facilities. More than 200 gas-fired boiler houses and several cogeneration thermal power plants for centralized heat supply were damaged as well. “If shelling continues into the start of the winter season, whole cities may find themselves without heat,” the report warned. Ukraine’s allies have accused Russia of “weaponising its energy exports”. Europe’s heavy dependence on Russian gas gives Putin significant political leverage. The foreign ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US, and the High Representative of the European Union issued a joint-statement on Tuesday “condemning Russian attempts to use energy as a tool of geopolitical coercion.” “We will act in solidarity and close coordination to mitigate the impact of supply disruptions on economies and citizens globally and in our countries,” they said. “We will build on our recent actions to secure energy supplies, stabilise markets and mitigate the increases in energy prices driven by Russia’s actions... This includes our efforts to reduce our demand for Russian energy.” Some analysts say this is easier said than done for some countries. Their governments risk a backlash from citizens unhappy that the price of support for Ukraine is having to wear extra layers this winter. In one positive step, the UN brokered an agreement with Russia to allow grain ships to pass through its naval blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, to help ease a global food crisis. The first vessel sailed from Odesa on Monday for Lebanon, via Turkey. Known as Europe’s breadbasket, Ukraine has more than 20 million tonnes of grain held in silos, ready for export. The grain is desperately needed to avert famines. Nuclear peril A nuclear accident at one of Ukraine’s four nuclear power plants has been a gnawing anxiety since the opening days of the war. The fear has been peaking in recent weeks with Russian forces using the sprawling Zaporizhzhia facility – Europe’s largest nuclear plant with six reactors – is being used as a fortress to launch artillery attacks, knowing Ukrainian troops can’t fire back, for fear of striking the complex. Rocket launchers have been sited between the reactor buildings and military vehicles have been parked in a turbine room. The United Nations nuclear chief this week described the situation as “extremely grave and dangerous”. Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said the plant “is completely out of control.” “Every principle of safety has been violated one way or the other. And we cannot allow that to continue,” he said. Mr Grossi cited many violations of the plant’s safety, adding that it is “in a place where active war is ongoing”. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has accused Moscow of using Zaporizhzhia as a “nuclear shield” in attacks on Ukrainian forces. “Of course the Ukrainians cannot fire back lest there be a terrible accident involving the nuclear plant,” he said. “It brings the notion of having a human shield to an entirely different and horrific level,” Mr Blinken told the United Nations on Monday. Although the nuclear complex in south-eastern city of Enerhodar has been under Russian control since early March, Ukrainian staff continue to run its nuclear operations, leading to friction and alleged violence, Mr Grossi said. According to the local mayor and former plant engineer Dmytro Orlov, control room workers have been interrogated and tortured, having been accused of informing Ukrainian military about activities at the plant. Mr Grossi said the supply chain of equipment and spare parts to the facility had been interrupted. He has pleaded with Russia to be allowed to send an IAEA team of experts to the plant to ensure it was operating safely and carry out any necessary repairs. He said the supply chain of equipment and spare parts has been interrupted. “There is a lot of nuclear material there to be inspected,” Mr Grossi said. “When you put this together, you have a catalogue of things that should never be happening in any nuclear facility. “And this is why I have been insisting from day one that we have to be able to go there to perform this safety and security evaluation, to do the repairs and to assist as we already did in Chernobyl.” The IAEA chief visited Chernobyl, 105km north of Kyiv and the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster, in April. At the time Mr Grossi described the level of safety there as “like a red light blinking”. The situation had improved since, he said. “I’m pleading as an international civil servant, as the head of an international organization, I’m pleading to both sides to let this mission (to Zaporizhzhia) proceed.” Mr Blinken said the IAEA should be given access to the plant. UN Secretary General António Guterres voiced his own fears at Monday’s special meeting to review the landmark 50-year-old Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. He warned humanity was “just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation.” Putin has threatened nuclear retaliation if NATO intervenes in the conflict. Russia’s use of the Zaporizhzhia complex as cover for its artillery is also frustrating Ukraine’s push to take back ground it lost in the early days of the invasion. Operation Kherson The main focus of the war at present is in the south and most notably the looming battle for Kherson. The regional capital and strategic Black Sea port was the first major city to fall in the invasion and is now the target of a major counter-offensive being prepared by Ukrainian forces. Kherson, straddling the Dnipro River which bisects the country, fell quickly because the priority at the time was defending Kyiv. Six months on, Ukraine has recaptured scores of towns and villages in the Kherson region and its soldiers are dug in just 50km from the city. Ukraine’s counter-attack comes after its troops have been getting the upper hand with the use of a highly-effective long-range American rocket-launching system, known as HIMARS, to soften up Russian positions and cut supply lines. They have struck ammunition depots and command posts, hampering Russia’s ability to unleash terrifying artillery barrages which have helped them gain ground in the east. A key bridge connecting Kherson to the rest of Russia’s occupied territory has also been destroyed. Rail links have been damaged as well. A US Department of Defence briefing last week claimed Ukrainian soldiers were “making tremendous use of the $8.2 billion in equipment we’ve provided thus far.” “We will be preparing another assistance package soon to ensure that the Ukrainians have the munitions they need for their fight in the east and now also in the south,” an official said. But the sophisticated, high-precision weapons aren’t reaching the battlefield as fast as commanders would like them. Some complain the training by allies is taking too long. “Just give them weapons and let them work,” Natalya Gumenyuk, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern military command, told The New York Times “They pat us on the shoulder and say, ‘Just hang on,’” she said. “We need more than just moral support, though we are grateful for it. We need real support, real weapons, real ammunition for those weapons.” The battle of Kherson has huge implications. Defeat would be crushing for either side. Aside from the colossal morale boost victory would give Ukraine, it would also open up routes to Melitopol, Berdyansk and Mariupol, three other large cities captured by Russia, which is now racing to bolster its numbers and defences around Kherson. That is being hampered by access difficulties, but the head of Ukraine’s National Security Council on Wednesday reported “a very powerful movement of Russian troops” to the front in Kherson. Given the months, the enemy has had to fortify its defences Ukraine’s generals know they have to be clever in how they advance. “Of course, we are waiting for the command to attack, but it’s not really that simple,” Senior Sergeant Oleksandr Babynets, 28, a member of the Ukrainian 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade, told The New York Times. “The Russians have organized defensive lines, dug in and deployed a lot of weaponry,” he said from his position to the west of the city, which is considered to be the most favourable front for an advance. Some 200,000 residents who remain in Kherson have been urged to evacuate by the government. The smoke plumes, booming artillery, frequent gunfire and smell of cordite – are in stark contrast to life in Kyiv, where residents have been trying to get back some normalcy and enjoy what’s left of summer. As if to respond to the images of locals sunbaking on the city’s river beaches, Russia renewed missile attacks on the capital last week after several weeks of calm. Donbas deadlock On Ukraine’s eastern front a grinding war of attrition is being waged. Russia has gained ground over the last five months at a huge cost in lives – mostly its own – but has stalled in the face of stiff resistance. Despite its brute force, flattening settlements with blanket bombing, it has yet to gain full control of Donbas, Putin’s “main goal” since abandoning his campaign to take Kyiv and Kharkiv. Some analysts believe victory in Donbas, which comprises the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, will be enough for Putin to end the war, even if doesn’t sate his appetite for more territorial gain in the future. He invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014. HIMARS has proven just as valuable to the Ukrainian Army in Donetsk. It said it repelled multiple attempts by the Russians to advance on the city of Bakhmut. President Zelensky implored some 200,000 civilians still in frontline areas to evacuate immediately. “Leave, we will help,” he said. “The more people leave the Donetsk region now, the fewer people the Russian army will have time to kill.” A mandatory evacuation notice posted last Saturday said the coming winter made it a matter of urgency, particularly for the more than 50,000 children still in the region. “They need to be evacuated, you cannot put them in mortal danger in the winter without heating, light, without the ability to keep them warm,” Kyiv’s Ministry of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories stated. War crimes UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has pledged to investigate the bombing of Ukrainian prisoners of war at Olinivka in Donetsk, the latest alleged war crime in a horrifying long list. Russia confirmed 53 had died and 75 were taken to hospital with serious injuries. President Zelensky accused Russia of “deliberate mass murder of Ukrainian prisoners of war” as horrifying pictures emerged showing burnt husks of bodies lying among the charred remains of metal bunk beds inside a detention centre. Russia has blamed the July 29 atrocity on Ukraine, saying it had fired US-supplied long-range missiles in an “egregious provocation” designed to stop soldiers from surrendering. The International Committee of the Red Cross has requested access to the prison. “Our priority right now is making sure that the wounded receive life-saving treatment and that the bodies of those who lost their lives are dealt with in a dignified manner,” the Red Cross said in a statement. The Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) has been investigating alleged war crimes in Ukraine. In addition, the Ukrainian prosecutor’s office said it was gathering documentation on more than 14,000 alleged Russian war crimes. One of the most recent cases involves the filmed castration of a Ukrainian POW last month. The victim was then shot in the head before his body was dragged through the streets on a rope. Putin honoured the military unit accused by Ukraine of massacring civilians in the city of Bucha, near Kyiv. “For its heroism and courage for the strength and merits shown by the brigade in combat to defend the Homeland and the interests of the State in conditions of armed conflict, I assign the honorary title of Guard to the 64th Guards Detached Motor Rifle Brigade,” a presidential decree said. After the withdrawal of Russian troops from Bucha, several hundred bodies were found, some of whom were handcuffed. There was also evidence of torture.

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Ukraine war: Russia bid to freeze Ukraine and Europe into submission, while nuclear accident worries grow

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