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Delta variant more deadly than Doherty Institute forecast

James HallNCA NewsWire
Annastacia Palaszczuk said new modelling may suggest higher vaccine coverage. Dan Peled / NCA NewsWire
Camera IconAnnastacia Palaszczuk said new modelling may suggest higher vaccine coverage. Dan Peled / NCA NewsWire Credit: News Corp Australia

The preferred modelling that dictates Australia’s plan to open borders and return life to normal did not factor in the deadliness of the Delta variant plaguing the eastern states.

The Doherty Institute’s projections have been the key research leaned on by national cabinet, which contributed to the agreement to ease restrictions once 80 per cent vaccine coverage is reached.

But a study from the University of Toronto in Canada has since found the variant is more than one-and-a-half times more likely to kill and nearly twice as likely to leave a patient in hospital than the Alpha variant.

The revelation leaves the road map to ease restrictions in jeopardy, with new data from the leading institute due in two weeks expected to suggest a change of plan.

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University of Melbourne’s James McCaw, who also works for the Doherty Institute, said the research team assumed the Delta variant was “Alpha-like”.

“As scientists, we update our understanding based on available evidence, and it’s now far more clear that Delta is more severe,” he said.

VACCINATIONS and TESTING
Camera IconThe Doherty Institute may be forced to change its border opening advice. Gaye Gerard / NCA NewsWire Credit: News Corp Australia

The change of tack from the institute was alluded to by Annastacia Palaszczuk, who said this week she was eagerly awaiting further modelling from the research group.

The Queensland Premier said on Monday the current plan was to open borders at 80 per cent vaccine coverage, but she also noted the review of the road map.

“Everyone’s comfortable with 80 per cent, but the Doherty plan might say higher,” she said.

QUEENSLAND PARLIAMENT
Camera IconAnnastacia Palaszczuk said new modelling may suggest higher vaccine coverage. Dan Peled / NCA NewsWire Credit: News Corp Australia

On Tuesday, she reiterated this position, urging constituents to be patient as new modelling is assembled.

“Let me say categorically, national cabinet is working on a national plan,” she told reporters on Tuesday.

“We are waiting on further information from the Doherty modelling to national cabinet in a fortnight’s time.

“In the meantime, let me say very clearly to Queensland, it is important to get vaccinated.

“We are now at 60 per cent. We need to get as many people as possible vaccinated to protect our lifestyle, to protect our freedoms.”

Originally published as Delta variant more deadly than Doherty Institute forecast

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