Federal election: Melissa Price likely to retain Durack, but Liberals’ margin expected to take a hit

Experts have pegged Durack incumbent Melissa Price as the likely victor in the upcoming fight for the Federal seat, but suggest the Liberals’ stronghold on the electorate will take a hit in the polls. Curtin Institute of Public Policy executive director Professor John Phillimore said it was surprising Geraldton’s Federal electorate was not more competitive given current voter preferences. “It was pretty competitive in the early 2000s but it now seems to be a very safe Liberal seat,” he said. “I don’t see any real reason in principle why the margin shouldn’t be closer. Places like Geraldton, Karratha and Hedland and Broome, these are often competitive Labor seats.” Professor Phillimore said the recent redrawing of electorate boundaries could also see a swing against the Coalition. “About 25,000 votes have been transferred from the seat of Pearce, so north of Perth places like Gingin have now moved into Durack. So if there is a swing to Labor in the outer suburbs that would make an impact,” he said. “Durack has also lost the Wheatbelt east of the Avon Valley. It still has Northam, Toodyay and York but it has lost places like Cunderdin and Merredin, which were very strongly pro-Coalition.” Despite the possibility of a margin shift, Professor Phillimore expected Mrs Price, who is also in Cabinet as Defence Industry Minister, would comfortably retain her seat. She currently holds Durack by a 13.5 per cent margin. Her main contenders are former long-time Geraldton Ian Blayney (Nationals), Jeremiah Riley (Labor) and Bianca McNeair (Greens). “It wont be a cliffhanger, Australia won’t be watching on TV until late in the evening to see what happened with Durack on election night,” Professor Phillimore said. “Once you are a sitting member in a regional seat it is very hard to dislodge you. The last time it was really close was in 2013 when Durack’s Barry Haase retired.” University of WA Professor Amanda Davies agreed a margin erosion for Durack was likely and said it would be up to candidates to win votes from country residents “financially hurting” due to rising living costs. “In the main approaches from the major parties, we have so far seen that the Liberals seem to be thinking ‘Let’s keep everything the same’, and the Labor party seem to be saying ‘Let’s keep things stable with few changes here and there’. It is going to be interesting to see how the country vote responds to that,” she said. “There is certainly that sense that the regional areas have been so important to the stability of Australia’s economy over the last two years, and there does need to be some attention to how we are going to make sure these cost of living can meaningfully come down.” Professor Davies said voters will be watching to see if any “substantive” commitments are made during the campaign to support those doing it tough in electorates like Durack. “If you want to retain that talent and see these areas really be vibrant hubs, there does need to be investment right now and not wait until people have to move away because they literally have no other choice because they cant find housing,” she said. “There doesn’t need to be enormous investment, it just needs to be strategic and it needs to be timely.”