Liberals face uphill battle to win North West Central by-election and match Nationals in Parliament

The Nationals seem likely to succeed in the North West Central by-election on Saturday, but the future is unclear for the seat and its new representative, according to a political expert. The Nationals are clear favourites to retain the seat, according to Curtin University Professor John Phillimore, executive director of the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy. After multiple successful elections with Vince Catania, the Nationals should win comfortably if they can build on the strong relationship Mr Catania had with the seat, Professor Phillimore said. “Vince Catania had a pretty strong personal vote,” he said. In the previous election, the Nationals took 40 per cent of primary votes, compared with only 8 per cent for the Liberals. Carnarvon pub owner Merome Beard is running for the Nationals, while Gascoyne pastoralist Will Baston is the Liberals’ candidate. Given the strong success the Nationals have previously had over the Liberals, Professor Phillimore predicts the Liberals’ anticipated loss could cause major shake-ups for the WA Liberals and their leader David Honey. If they can pull off a surprise win, however, it would produce the most interesting situation, according to Professor Phillimore, with the Liberals and Nationals then both holding three seats in the Legislative Assembly. The question in that case would be whether official opposition party status remains with the Nationals, or returns to the Liberals. “That might have been one reason Labor decided not to run, to let the two parties fight it out,” he said. While agreeing that the by-election’s winner won’t be able to have much of an impact on legislation in the Labor-dominated State Parliament, the flipside of having a small opposition is that North West Central’s new representative will have a spotlight to raise the issues they want to see discussed, according to Professor Phillimore. The days of the North West Central electorate could be numbered, however, as the seat could be up for redistribution because of its low population, further complicating the situation. “It could be a short-term career move somebody in that seat, we don’t know yet,” Professor Phillimore said. Labor’s absence does mean it will be difficult to interpret Saturday’s results. “Both the Nationals and Liberals are running on an anti-government campaign, it doesn’t tell you much if either wins because they would have run on that anyway,” Professor Phillimore said.