Venezuela takeover: CIA told Donald Trump the nation’s opposition wasn’t strong enough to take over

The Central Intelligence Agency told Donald Trump that installing the Nobel Prize-winning leader of the Venezuelan opposition in charge of the oil-rich nation would unleash political instability that would make the country difficult to manage.

The advice, which was first reported by the Wall Street Journal, was presented to President Trump in the past two weeks and appears to have influenced the decision to allow the deputies of captured President Nicolás Maduro to remain in power.

As Mr Maduro appeared in a civilian courtroom in downtown New York and complained he had been kidnapped, his hard-line vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, was sworn in as leader of the nation of 30 million people, economically devastated by 20 years of socialist rule.

Asked who was in charge of Venezuela, President Trump said: “me.”

No election plans

There are no immediate plans for an election that could allow oppositions figures such as María Corina Machado, the Nobel winner, to help form a new government, Mr Trump said in a television interview.

Foreign leaders and many Americans wonder how far Mr Trump is willing go to turn around the fortunes of a country that has the world’s largest oil reserves but has fallen to 18th by production under a corrupt and inefficient government.

The president indicated one option being considered is paying US energy companies to invest in Venezuela’s run-down oil infrastructure, which he said could be done in less than 18 months.

“We have to fix the country first,” Mr Trump told NBC news. “You can’t have an election. There’s no way the people could even vote.”

The CIA report argued that Ms Machado and Edmundo González, widely seen as the winner of a 2024 national election, would struggle to control the government and country in the face of resistance from the security services, drug-trafficking cartels and senior politicians from Mr Maduro’s party.

The analysis helped convince Mr Trump to allow the existing government to remain in place, government sources told the paper.

Americans split

A poll indicated many Americans haven’t decided what to make of Saturday’s daring attack on Caracas and the seizure of Mr Maduro and wife Cilia Flores.

A poll taken immediately after the raid by Ipsos for the Reuters news agency found about one-third of Americans approved of the intervention, about one-third disapproved and the rest were unsure.

The couple appeared in court Monday, wearing t-shirts over orange jump suits. Mr Maduro was cut off by the judge when he began a speech protesting his capture and arrest. The politician claimed to be a prisoner of war, rather than a criminal defendant, an important legal distinction.

“There will be time and place to get into all of this,” Judge Alvin Hellerstein said.

The four-charge indictment, which was not read in court, alleges that Mr Maduro and other senior Venezuelan officials worked with international drug trafficking organisations for two decades to ship illicit drugs to the US, including while Mr Maduro was foreign minister.

“I’m innocent,” Mr Maduro told in court in Spanish. “I’m not guilty. I am a decent man. I am still president of my country.”

Despite the gravity of his situation, the 63-year-old was upbeat. As he entered the courtroom he said “Happy new year!” in English to members of the public.

His wife, who had large bandages on her temple and forehead, said was “completely innocent”. Her lawyer said she suffered “significant injuries during her abduction” and needed medical help for severe bruising on her ribs.

Defiant

As they stood and walked out under guard, a man in the courtroom called out to Mr Maduro that he would pay for his crimes. Mr Maduro said he would be released.

After the half-hour hearing the couple were returned to the Metropolitan Detention Centre in Brooklyn, which has been used to hold Jeffrey Epstein’s close friend, Ghislaine Maxwell, Mexican drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán and singer Diddy, who was convicted of sex trafficking.

A trial for the Maduros might not happen for another a year. In the meantime, the Venezuelan government is searching for a reputed high-level spy who gave the US information about Mr Maduro’s movements.

His son, Nicolás Maduro Guerra, gave a blistering speech in the national parliament condemning the attack on his country. “If we normalize the kidnapping of a head of state, no country is safe,” he said.

Despite being bombed and suffering the loss of its president, Venezuela has not declared war or promised to retaliate.

International debate

As the United Nations Security Council held an emergency debate on the the implications of the raid, Secretary-general Antonio Guterres said it marked a dangerous precedent, siding with Venezuela’s diplomatic supporters, including China and Russia.

In Australia, former Army general Mick Ryan said Mr Trump had engaged in “regime decapitation” designed to intimidate the Venezuelan government into cooperating with US policy.

“Other than Maduro, the entire regime remains in place,” Mr Ryan told The Nightly. “The Trump Administration appears to have no plan for more other than to coerce a change in behaviour from the regime.”

In a separate article for the Lowy Institute, a foreign affairs think tank, he expressed concern that the US might become distracted in Latin American while “China further builds its military, economic and diplomatic power.”

The Pentagon disclosed that 200 members of the elite US Army unit known as Delta Fore conducted the 2am attack on Mr Maduro’s residence in Caracas.

Among those killed were 32 officers from Cuba’s Interior Ministry assigned as bodyguards to the president and his wife.

‘This is OUR Hemisphere’

The daring mission attracted huge interest from special forces veterans around the world, including in Australia, where the Special Air Service Regiment has a long history of joint missions with Delta Force.

An SAS soldier who worked with the US unit, former sergeant Andrew White, said the main challenge of the raid was precisely timing the arrival of about 150 aircraft and hundreds of soldiers, ships and missiles in a hostile country about 2000km from the US mainland.

“The difficulty is not the assault itself, but executing every component in the correct sequence, at the correct moment, in a contested environment where the target is actively attempting to evade capture,” he wrote in an article for The Nightly. “What this demonstrates is not audacity, but discipline.”

The mission’s success showed the US military has learnt from previous military interventions, including an infamous attempt to rescue American diplomats in Iran in 1980, he said.

While human rights lawyers condemned the use of violence against another nation, the Trump Administration was unapologetic.

The State Department posed a photo of the president on X under the words: “This is OUR Hemisphere, and President Trump will not allow our security to be threatened.”