How Cyclone, tariff tornado blew Liberals off course: Twists, turns, highs & lows of Federal election campaign

Australia’s frenetic Federal election campaign is nearing the finish line, as the two leaders vying to be the next Prime Minister criss-cross the nation in a last-minute dash to sweep up votes.

Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton’s have faced five hectic weeks on the road, overlapping each other from Melbourne to Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, while making stops in Sydney for four bouts in the debating ring.

At a whirlwind time for national politics, we’ve broken down some highlights and a few viral moments.

Turning points

A string of polls put Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his Labor Party in prime position to beat the Coalition on May 3, even if only in a minority government, although Opposition Leader Peter Dutton predicts “a lot of surprises, seat by seat on Saturday night” and analysts warn it remains a two-horse race.

If polling proves accurate, the Coalition’s fate may have been directed by pivotal moments even before the official starting pistol was fired, in a series of events outside of either party’s control.

The erratic Cyclone Alfred, which battered the east coast in early March, was the first major upset, derailing Labor’s plans to hold an April 12 poll to avoid handing down a Federal Budget and to capitalise on a state win in WA and the first interest rate cut in five years.

The delay unexpectedly swung in Labor’s favour, with the natural disaster, as well as the circumnavigation of Australia by Chinese warships, appearing to prove the theory that voters stick with the incumbent in times of crisis.

The shift to a May 3 poll may have unsettled the Coalition’s strategy and certainly left little time for its key pledges on defence and housing to land in a period where voters were switching off for the Easter and Anzac Day holidays, and distracted by global grief over the death of the Pope.

February’s rate cut to from 4.35 to 4.10 per cent, and the return of underlying inflation to within the Reserve Bank’s target zone, have eaten into Coalition’s claims to be the best manager of the economy, although it has landed blows on Labor’s failure to secure a carve-out from Trump’s ten per cent trade tariffs.

But the most defining moment of all may turn out to be the ugly showdown between Ukraine’s wartime President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump and Vice-President JD Vance that left the world gasping in shock.

The unsettling confrontation not only boosted the idea voters will flock to stability, but also deepened the toxicity of any comparison to Trumpian language and policies.

It’s a parallel Mr Dutton’s political opponents have been keen to lean into, accusing him of “Americanising” healthcare and targeting his aim to end “indoctrination” of schoolchildren, and planned cuts to public service.

Mr Dutton has also added red meat, with planned restrictions to “work-from-home” arrangements polling so badly that it prompted a U-turn.

Campaign highlights

Mr Albanese and Mr Dutton have both relished their political duty to pose with good-natured dogs and cuddle cute babies. Excitable schoolchildren and the return of the uniquely Australian democracy sausage have been light relief highlights.

Four nationally broadcast debates and daily combative press conference by both leaders have offered transparency and ample information to voters.

Both parties have been sincere in their attempt to ease the cost-of-living crisis even if they come to blows over how to do it, and both have scored policy wins.

The Coalition has backed its “are you better off?” question with a popular pledge to cut fuel excise by 25c per litre for a year, a $10b tax benefit for around 85 per cent of taxpayers, and a plan to reduce household energy bills by 3 per cent in 2026.

Labor put its best foot forward with an early promise to invest $8.5b in Medicare to ensure bulk-billing for nine out of 10 GP visits by 2030, and started its official campaign with a surprise, if modest, $17b tax cut to give average earners an extra $536 a year.

Both sides have offered significant relief for young and aspiring homeowners, even if economists have slammed the plans as a “dumpster fire of dumb ideas” that could ultimately raise housing prices.

Labor has put $10b on the table to build 100,000 homes for first-time buyers, while unveiling a plan to allow 5 per cent deposits, while the Coalition would allow first-time buyers of new builds to deduct mortgage payments from income taxes.

The pre-election sweeteners rank high on the long list of handouts for infrastructure, health and community projects that may become next term’s financial headache for whichever new government is trying to tackle more than $1 trillion in debt.

Low points on the trail

A early flurry of gatecrashers, with one protestor able to get within an arm’s reach of Mr Dutton on his first day in Queensland, triggered heightened security that limited spontaneous interactions with the general public.

Heckling was topped up with vandalism targeting both sides.

Mr Dutton’s Brisbane office has been hit three times, splattered with red paint and slogans. Labor’s Josh Burns has faced continued anti-Semitic threats, including a billboard vandalised with a red Star of David over his face.

Despite a smorgasbord of new policies, a dearth of political vision and bold reform plans has seen both leaders fall back on scare tactics and personal jibes.

Labor has repeated its mantra that healthcare is unsafe under the Coalition, despite the Opposition matching the Government’s $8.5b bulkbilling pledge and denying it will reverse a surge in urgent care centres.

Mr Albanese has frequently questioned Mr Dutton’s readiness for office, while the Coalition Leader has accused the Prime Minister of “lies, lies, lies.”

In the final week, Mr Dutton has tried to stir memories of the failed Voice referendum, diverting from a cost-of-living focus to tap into a “culture war” vibe.

After signalling he wants fewer welcome to country ceremonies, he seized on comments from Foreign Minister Penny Wong to claim a secret plan to revisit the Voice – an accusation Labor denies.

Viral moments

No campaign is complete without a series of viral events which, sadly for politicians touting long-considered policies, are the moments that stick in the public’s minds.

The Prime Minister stole the stage in the first week by falling off one, in a stumble that made global headlines. By week five, he was flummoxed by an endorsement by Joe Exotic, the disgraced Tiger King, in one of the weirdest twists of the campaign.

Independent Monique Ryan was forced to apologise after viral footage of her husband snatching a sign from her Liberal rival Amelia Hamer, which he believed was illegally placed.

The midway official campaign launch weekends were marked by meme-able moments when the Prime Minister and environment minister Tanya Plibersek managed the most awkward air-kiss ever broadcast.

Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, the Coalition’s minister for government efficiency matched the cringeworthy exchange with her declaration to “make Australia great again,” a MAGA comparison Mr Dutton would undoubtedly rather have swerved.

A series of minor Coalition traffic mishaps have lit up the internet after a Liberal Party campaign truck got lodged in an early voting centre in western Sydney, forcing days of delays.

Finally, the breakdown of an Opposition campaign bus was hard to keep out of the headlines after journalists rushed to help push it out of central Sydney traffic — a metaphor for getting “back on track” that the Coalition will be hoping this weekend to avoid.