Chris Bowen set to release 2035 emission cuts amid argument over 70 per cent level

Chris Bowen is on a potential collision course with his colleagues over Australia’s emissions targets with big business warning him that an internal Labor push to set a baseline of 70 per cent would require $530 billion in investment.

The Climate Minister is preparing to tell resources, transport and agricultural sectors within weeks how much the government expects them to cut emissions over the next decade.

He’s warned there is “an ever-receding finish line” to tackle climate change.

“But we’ll be very honest with people that there’s work to do, and no one should think we can just put our feet on the desk and everything we’ve done so far is all that will need to be done between now and 2050,” he told The West.

The 2035 target for emissions cuts will be unveiled before Prime Minister Anthony Albanese heads to New York to address the United Nations at the end of September.

Mr Bowen is keeping tight-lipped on his thinking ahead of receiving Climate Change Authority advice and taking a position to Cabinet.

But he’s believed to be eyeing off setting a range, rather than a single number like the 43 per cent by 2030 target.

“Other countries do ranges and it’s perfectly appropriate,” he said.

The Authority is widely expected to advocate for a cut of 65-75 per cent below 2005 levels.

But the minister says decisions around how to get there will be just as important, if not more so, as the number, with new policies needed.

The target’s release comes as leadership within Labor’s key environmental advocacy group LEAN is changing.

LEAN, led for 12 years by Felicity Wade, has been pushing the Government towards locking in an emissions cut of at least 70 per cent.

It has a growing number of supporters within Labor’s caucus after the influx of new MPs in May.

Several backbenchers pushing for action would like to see something within the high-60s to low-70s, but they too are more focused on tackling the “policy gaps” that need filling to achieve ambitious cuts.

“We have the track record and intention of not just setting a target, but outlining what the pathways to achieve a target would be,” Mr Bowen said, highlighting action in agriculture, resources, industry and transport.

“Electricity is a third of our emissions. It’s our biggest emitting sector, sure, but still a third... A plan which only deals with electricity is not a plan.

“If you decarbonise electricity, obviously that helps decarbonise industry and decarbonise transport. But it’s not enough just to decarbonise electricity.”

The Business Council of Australia echoed this in a report released on Friday that forecast the bulk of the task would need to also spread across the resources and industry sectors to hit 2035 goals.

It said a 60 per cent target would require “significant policy push” and sustained private sector investment worth $395-480 billion, along with breaking bottlenecks in project approvals, social license and workforce shortages.

Resources sector emissions would have to drop by almost a third and industry by 41 per cent.

But a target of 70 per cent or higher would need all of this plus curbs on gas and coal exports and the early, widespread adoption of technology that wasn’t fully ready.

It would require up to $530 billion in investment and there was potential to lose some $150 billion in exports each year.

The Government will release its long-awaited national climate risk assessment and adaptation plan after Mr Albanese returns from the Pacific Islands Forum next week, as a precursor to setting the target.

These were commissioned in 2023 and Mr Bowen said they would help the Government make the case to the public about the need for ambitious action.

“The National Risk Assessment will show that Australia has a lot at stake in the path to net zero, and that if we divert from that path, our country’s got a price to pay,” the minister said.

“If you’re just doom and gloom, you can turn people off, frankly … but I’ve got to be honest: there’s a downside risk and there’s an upside chance for Australia.”