How the Australian bushfire disaster could hurt Prime Minister Scott Morrison at the next Federal election

Three quarters of Australians say they have been impacted by this year’s bushfire season, with researchers warning the Government might not recover from the hit it has taken in approval and confidence ratings as a result. Polling released by the Australian National University today found 14 per cent of adult Australians reported they had been “directly affected” by the fires. This included property being threatened or damaged, or receiving advice to evacuate. But that figure jumped to 75 per cent for Australians who reported being “indirectly” affected, whether that be cancelling holiday plans or having family or friends in impacted areas. The experience of the devastating bushfires also took its toll on public opinion of the Coalition, with just over a quarter of respondents reporting they were confident in the Government — a decline of almost 11 percentage points from October 2019. Approval for Scott Morrison also dropped from 5.25 out of 10 in June to 3.92 in the January poll, with less than 35 per cent of people indicating they would vote for the Coalition. This was down from 40.4 per cent. Meanwhile, more people indicated they would vote for the Labor or the Greens compared to before the fire season. Lead researcher Professor Nicholas Biddle said the survey, which included responses from more than 300 people, was the biggest study on public perception about the bushfires to date. “These fires have been unprecedented in scale and global in impact. And now our poll shows just how far and wide and how many Australians have felt the negative and long-lasting effects of this disaster – regardless of their economic, social or cultural background,” he said. Professor Biddle said the figures reflected other data, including Newspoll showed approval in Morrison tumbled from 45 to 37 per cent. While noting a “rebound” affect was common for Government following a national emergency - that is taking a hit in voter confidence before a re correct a short time later - Professor Biddle said he predicted this would not be the case in this instance. “The difference is the higher rate of exposure,” he said. “The Black Saturday Fires in 2009 took many more lives, but impacted a small area in Victoria. It didn’t touch nearly as many lives as this latest disaster did.” Mr Morrison has defended himself against attacks on how responded to the bushfires emergency, including one from comedian Celeste Barber at the weekend’s fundraising concert where she told the crowd those “at the top” weren’t looking after Australians. She also donned a t-shirt with Mr Morrison on holiday in Hawaii. “I’ve got thick skin,” the Prime Minister said yesterday. Mr Morrison also played down a verbal lashing given to him by volunteer firefighter Paul Parker during the crisis, saying the man was “exhausted” from fighting fires.