Foreign Minister Penny Wong warns Taiwan war would be ‘catastrophe for all’ as she hits back at Keating claims

Penny Wong has warned war in Taiwan would be catastrophic for all involved while saying Australia’s diplomatic efforts to keep stability in the region must be underpinned by military heft.

The Foreign Minister also said Australia was not a “hostage to history” and made the case for how vital the Pacific is to the nation’s security, in a rebuff of former Labor prime minister Paul Keating’s harsh criticisms.

In her first speech to the National Press Club since the election, Senator Wong said Australia needed to use all of its national efforts — diplomacy, economic security and military power — to meet the challenge of increasing strategic competition.

It was no longer possible to separate economic and strategic relationships, nor rely solely on a great power such as the US to protect us, she said.

But Mr Keating dismissed the minister’s speech as “platitudes” and reiterated his belief Senator Wong wasn’t up to the job.

‘Dangerous parlour game’

Senator Wong said the reality was “China is going to keep being China” in terms of its status as an economic powerhouse but also its willingness to use its strength to pursue what it saw as its own interests.

“China continues to modernise its military at a pace and scale not seen in the world for nearly a century with little transparency or assurance about its strategic intent,” she said.

This combined with continued destabilisation by North Korea and the increasing risk of miscalculation made for the most confronting circumstances in decades.

But Senator Wong said leaders must resist the temptation to add to “frenzied discussion” over timelines and scenarios about Taiwan.

“It is the most dangerous of parlour games,” she said.

“Because let me be absolutely clear: A war over Taiwan would be catastrophic for all.

“Our job is to lower the heat on any potential conflict, while increasing pressure on others to do the same… That may not sell as many newspapers today, but it will help you to sell them for a lot longer.”

Comparisons between the current strategic circumstances and previous times when Australia found itself on the verge of conflict — 1914, the late 1930s and 1962 — should be seen as warnings but not precedents

“We are not hostages to history. We decide what to do with the present,” she said.

“Our decision is to use all elements of our national power to shape the world in our interests, and to shape it for the better.”

China has been increasingly active in the region, stepping in to finance infrastructure and seeking to strike security and military deals with Pacific nations.

Returning Australia to the status of a partner of choice – “Partners, not patriarchs” – has been a priority for the Government.

By the end of the week, Senator Wong will have visited every Pacific Island Forum member country.

Those visits are also aimed at making it clear to Pacific countries what they might be signing up to if they look to China, including unsustainable debt burdens or lack of follow-through on promises.

Keating has ‘diminished’ legacy

The day after the Government announced the $368 billion AUKUS plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, Mr Keating slammed the deal and aimed personal criticisms at Senator Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles.

He played down China’s military expansion and said foreign policy should be about how Australia engaged with the great powers of China and the US, not “running around the Pacific Islands with a lei around your neck handing out money”.

Senator Wong responded directly in her speech.

“Australia’s foreign policy, at its best, has never simply been ‘what you do with the great powers’,” she said.

“Anyone who questions the strategic importance of Pacific islands to Australia’s security needs only acquire the briefest familiarity with history.”

A Howard-era world where Australia could separate its strategic relationship with the US from its economic relationship with China no longer existed.

While the US remained an “indispensable power”, the nature of its role had changed and it was now central to balancing out a region with several powers.

Nor was it helpful to take a narrow view of the strategic circumstances as being solely about “the potential of kinetic conflict on our shores”.

“Some imply we should attach ourselves to what they anticipate will be a hegemonic China. But the Albanese Government will always be more ambitious for Australia,” she said.

She took aim more squarely at Mr Keating’s personal criticism when asked whether she had spoken to him during the month since his remarks.

“I think in tone and substance he diminished both his legacy and the subject matter,” she said.

The former PM hit back in a lengthy written statement, saying he “never expected more than platitudes from Penny Wong’s Press Club speech” and claiming she offered “not a jot of an idea” about how to settle competition between the great powers peacefully.

“As a middle power, Australia is now straddling a strategic divide, a divide rapidly becoming every bit as rigid as that which obtained in Europe in 1914,” Mr Keating said.

“Australia’s major foreign policy task is to soften that rigidity by encouraging both the US and China to find common cause and benefit in a peaceful and prosperous Pacific.

“Nothing Penny Wong said today, on Australia’s behalf, adds one iota of substance to that urgent task.”

Proud non-proliferation history

Senator Wong said it was incumbent on all countries in the region to use their diplomatic, economic and other engagements to uphold the peaceful balance – and not leave the defence of the Pacific solely to the US.

But she said that balance had to be underpinned by military capability.

Australia had to “change the calculus for any potential aggressor” to make sure the benefits of conflict to them never outweighed the risks.

Senator Wong outlined Labor’s proud history of championing nuclear non-proliferation and again reiterated the submarines would be nuclear-powered only and armed with conventional weapons.

Labor’s party platform says Australia should sign up to a new treaty aimed at banning nuclear weapons, but Senator Wong stopped short of committing to do so before the next election.

However, she said the Government did share an ambition for a world free of nuclear weapons.

“I thank the fact that so many states have signed (the new treaty) demonstrates the frustration that there has been insufficient progress in the politics of the NPT,” she said.