Paul Murray: Sneaky media drop finally confirms cost of Labor’s net zero folly, and need to keep coal stations

After a long wait, Amber-Jade Sanderson’s capitulation over Labor’s failing renewable energy transition away from coal-fired power was meek. In fact, so timid that many people might have missed it. Sanderson admitted the Cook Government was now prepared to keep the two remaining Collie coal-fired power stations running if it is short of renewable energy as former premier Mark McGowan’s 2029 thought-bubble deadline approaches. Then, a few days later, news leaked that Sanderson is quietly planning a 300MW gas-fired power plant to shore up the South-West grid even further against the uncertainties of renewable energy. Readers of this column would know these eventualities have been obvious for many years but didn’t fit the net-zero narrative Labor was peddling to a green-addled community, brain-washed about fossil fuels. So at least it appears there’s a media strategy in place now the penny has dropped about coal — even if there isn’t a viable plan for the physical transition itself. But these days, getting the spin right is all that counts. Someone should have reminded Roger Cook before news leaked of his intention to live outside his electorate. Labor was never going to concede honestly that it will need coal for many years to come. Propping up the private Bluewaters power plant with $300 million in subsidies to Griffin Coal was just the start. Instead, it will nudge the public towards that conclusion incrementally. Straight out of the Fabian socialist handbook. “If it gets to 2030 and you need to hang on to those coal-fired power stations for another year or so, I imagine you would, rather than have a shortfall of power?” Sanderson was prompted on the ABC a week ago. The Energy Minister, previously defiant when the viability of closing Synergy’s Collie power plants was questioned, became suddenly conciliatory. “We will do what we have to do to maintain energy security and reliability,” Sanderson purred. And in a single bound she was free. Not without a weasel-words caveat, of course: “It is my view we are unlikely to need them beyond 2030”. “Them” is the 794MW of coal-fired power generators Synergy still operates at Collie. And the plan was to stop using them in 2029, not 2030, anyway. Less than 150MW of renewables generation capacity has been added to the SWIS in the past four years. So there’s a lot of hope in Sanderson’s “unlikely” scenario. Remember, about 5MW of renewables generation is needed to replace every 1MW of coal power being shut down because of the intermittent and unreliable nature of wind and solar. Along with buying lots of very expensive 4-hour batteries. That ABC interview was Friday week. Its significance was largely overlooked in the media. Two days later, the Sunday Times reported the Cook Government was in “advanced planning” for a 300MW gas-fired power station, purportedly to be built by 2030. “Although Ms Sanderson is still fully committed to shutting down State Government-owned coal-fired power stations by 2029, in a radio interview this week she appeared to leave the door open to extending the life of coal if needed,” the newspaper reported. It noted that the Liberals had proposed a 300MW gas-fired generator before the last State election as essential for WA’s energy security. Which had Opposition energy spokesman Steve Thomas crowing that Sanderson was pinching his policy. The election pledge — attacked by Labor — also promised to extend the lifespan of existing coal generators where necessary until enough renewable generation, supported by gas and energy storage, was available. “The Government remains five to 10 years behind its own plan for renewable energy development, and by delaying the essential Whole of System Plan by years it will only fall further behind,” Thomas said. The West Australian’s business pages on Tuesday then poured a bucket of cold water on the idea that Labor could build a new gas plant before the end of 2029, which threw the government’s strategy wide open again. “Securing gas turbines can take up to three years, according to a recent Financial Times report,” The West noted. Given that Synergy will not present a business case to the government until the end of this year, there appears little prospect that a 300MW gas plant could be built in time. The West quoted experienced WA energy industry expert Richard Harris saying that planning should have started earlier to avoid procurement challenges. It obviously didn’t because Labor had the blinkers on about renewables. “The problem is there are only a number of firms around the world who build these things,” Harris said. “Europe and America are the main suppliers, and everybody wants one at the moment because the whole world is doing the same thing, which is effectively moving away from coal-fired power stations to renewables.” Former Western Power generation head Mark Chatfield says the bigger issue will be getting enough gas down the already constrained Dampier-Bunbury pipeline to fuel the new turbines — whenever they might arrive. “There is currently 2900 MW of gas-fired capacity in the SWIS, which if it was all required at once would be beyond the capacity of the DBP to supply,” Chatfield says. “So adding another 300 MW from new Synergy plant, and say 600MW from Alinta and Perth Energy, will stretch the DBP at times beyond its capacity. “When will this occur? After the coal units at Synergy are retired, when there is little or no wind, after dark when solar is at zero, and after four hours when the batteries are flat. “In these circumstances, the DBP will be required to supply all of the fuel, say 3800 MW of gas capacity. This will produce a gas demand of around 850 TJ/day, which is beyond the capacity of the DBP. So the lights will go out. “This will be mitigated somewhat if they decide to burn liquid fuel (diesel), but the logistics and cost are awful. So, the upshot is that unless the SWIS can have access to sufficient quantity of delivered gas, it will fail due to pipeline capacity issues. “The people in government planning the SWIS of the future have no idea about this issue, they still think that if they build excessive quantities of wind, solar and battery storage that the SWIS will be OK. “We have to have access to an increased quantity of delivered gas in the South-West to overcome the intermittency of renewable sources in order for the SWIS to remain reliable, if the coal plants are to be retired.” So this raises a further problem: Synergy’s ability to manage the remaining coal-fired power stations planned for redundancy by 2029, but which may now be required long after that. As pointed out in this column last month, Synergy is running down the 330MW Collie power station, due to be closed late next year. It is only 26-years old, reasonably young in generator terms, but has significant maintenance issues already, as do the two 227MW units at the Muja plant, more than 40 years old, the last scheduled to close in 2029. Green zealots pushing the fantasy that renewables can supply all our energy needs are prone to claim that coal-fired power stations are unreliable. Hapless Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen does it regularly. That’s only true if they are not properly maintained, which is often what happens when they are due to be retired. One expert explained the redundancy strategy is for them to “bellyflop” over the deadline. Without an honest acceptance from the government about the need to keep Collie coal-fired power going well into the 2030s, the public can have no confidence in the reliability of Synergy’s plant. Which further threatens our energy security. This arrogance has become standard for the Cook Government. It was obvious in the ham-fisted handling this week of the Premier’s decision to quit his Kwinana electorate to live closer to his city office, a nod to the congestion strangling the southern freeway. Cook botched the explanation for moving to a new West Perth apartment from his Wellard home, risibly arguing he couldn’t afford to keep both on a $400,000 salary — but glossing over two other investment properties. That same day, the government blithely put out a statement in the Premier’s name about future plans to address gridlock on the freeway. Tin-eared given the raging brouhaha. “Congestion along the Kwinana Freeway during peak periods is a major source of frustration for members of my community, and commuters in Perth’s southern suburbs,” Cook said. But at least his family is taking two vehicles off the rolling carpark. The rest of Kwinana can eat cake. The same goes for anyone worried about our energy future.