Michael Barlow: Ladder often predicts finals story but second week all about mental battles

Week two of the finals series — it’s always the most intriguing as experts and the general fan ponder two things. The possibility of the two teams winning an eliminator and riding the momentum train, in GWS and Carlton, and the doom and gloom of top four prospects getting drummed out in straight sets — Melbourne and Port Adelaide. Across my career, I participated in week two of the final’s series on two occasions — in 2012 after an elimination final win against Geelong, as well as 2014 after a week one defeat at the hands of Sydney. Both of these ended in defeat. I do recall the personal psyche I contained in both instances. In 2012 there was a buzz of excitement. Personally, I had come from my first AFL finals win. It was intoxicating. Winning on the road in Melbourne and bouncing into another road game in Adelaide only felt a more achievable conquest than the one we had just trumped. The gas ran out across the second half. The home crowd started to go bananas. The benefit of the double chance for the Crows and their luxury of a home crowd in the end overwhelmed an exhausted Dockers. In 2014, it just felt as if the cards hadn’t fallen our way at the important time of the year. The Swans got a hold of us in the first week. By the time we settled for the home fixture in Round 2 we were wounded physically and bracing for the momentum charged Port Power. Luke McPharlin and Michael Johnson were both sidelined for the finals, Hayden Ballantyne had busted a jaw a week earlier in the loss to the Swans. Ballantyne was an All-Australian that year, with other two both named in the team in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Since the pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016, only four times out of 12 games has the side been eliminated in straight sets. This speaks to the ladder telling the true story in the home and away season when the pressure is applied in the second week of finals. Melbourne and Port Adelaide will be harnessing that messaging within the four walls of their training bases this week. Like our own Fremantle experience in 2014. There are injury worries and continuity problems for both the Demons and the Power. Melbourne is to be without Angus Brayshaw (concussion) and Jacob van Rooyen (suspension), but with a misfiring forward line that many experts cannot see straightening up. Coach Simon Goodwin will be very much assuring his side that these external doubts have been following them across the majority of the 2023 season. While those doubts existed, the Demons still did enough to qualify with the double chance. That double chance they have now used and can trust their form across the season, as well as the coaching groups nous to put together a team and system to win through to a preliminary final. Port Adelaide seem less convincing. Brisbane is red hot, however the depth of contributions fell away sharply for the Power on Saturday night. Further injuries may expose more deeply the holes this side has when up against the best teams. No train is shooting across the rails as sharply as the Carlton train. There are plenty of positive affirmations that Michael Voss will be grabbing onto to harness another spirted effort. The fast start from the Blues was like they had open the gates and let the 22 players free for the first time since their last competitive match. It will be hard to sustain, the sign of diminishing output was there for all to see as they scraped home against Sydney on Friday night. It’s similar to the Dockers of 2012 — internally it felt like we could maintain it forever, but eventually the spirit can run dry when the adversity meter soars. The Giants seem an exception to most rules. Winning at 11 different venues, with little to no external support in comparison to the Carltons, Melbournes and Port Adelaides of the world. They genuinely have had to build the resilience stores together across a gruelling season. It is beyond admirable. Adam Kingsley would just need to continue to promote the player to player bond that is far stronger than any external motivator the men in orange can draw upon. Their script is different to all the others and the orange tsunami very much could be the fifth team to drum out a side in straight sets since 2016.