Mick Malthouse: Finals fates will come down to a handful of players and that could play into Carlton’s hands

The fate of tonight’s elimination finalists could rest in the hands of two players. Cody Weightman, and the wizard, Nick Watson. Bulldog Weightman will do it by himself. Hawk Watson will have co-conspirators Jack Ginnivan and Dylan Moore as back up. But one thing’s for sure — it will be a ripping game. Which means the major disappointment of this finals series is that one of these clubs will be outed tonight. The Bulldogs and Hawthorn are both perfectly balanced for September in as much as they each have outstanding, combative midfields. The Dogs are probably slightly superior in the tall forwards department. And in the ruck, Lloyd Meek is better in the contest, while Tim English is better around the ground. James Sicily leads the Hawks beautifully from the half-back line. And Marcus Bontempelli is a premier leader and midfielder. Both coaches are adventurous and each team responds accordingly. If there is a ground advantage it may well fall to Hawthorn with its outstanding running credentials to cover the vast expanse of the MCG. The Hawks have hardly played any evening football, particularly at the MCG, but it shouldn’t pose a problem. The Dogs’ home ground at Docklands has served them beautifully so the ‘G may feel a little foreign. I’m leaning towards a Dogs win however, only because Will Day is out for Hawthorn. But the midfield battle, as usual, will determine the outcome. Heading north to the Sydney battle, the Swans had a brilliant start to the season, then a mini slump posed many questions about their vulnerabilities. Is their backline big and strong enough? Are the key forwards too unreliable? However, they found a way through with their medium-sized players and a brilliant midfield led by Isaac Heeney. GWS has the Coleman medallist and so much credit should go to Jesse Hogan for turning his football career around, he has simply been magnificent. The Giants are on song when they penetrate their front 50 on multiple occasions with minimal fuss, as opposed to when they fall back into overusing the ball and turning it over before getting inside the front 50. Finals football is trench-fighting more often than the glamour of wide, loose football. Both teams are quite capable of playing September football when needed, and it will take that close-in, combative style of footy to break down the opposition. GWS captain Toby Greene hasn’t been in great form and Tom Papley hasn’t been able to get on the ground through injury, but this game may be determined by the output of either one of these players. Both enjoy the big stage. I’m tipping Sydney to win because of the distinct home-ground advantage at the SCG. The Brisbane, Carlton match has twists and turns like very few other finals. The Blues’ team has changed dramatically since their narrow loss to St Kilda, but regardless of how many changes they make, it will all add value. Brisbane had all but sewn up a top-four position, then again fell short in Round 23 to Collingwood by one point. It was almost predictable. It’s going too far to say the Lions are flaky, but they can be so disappointing when the correct decision at the right time has to be made. Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood have rarely struck it together, and Cam Rayner, touted as an All-Australian, rarely plays well in the big games against good opposition. The two great key backs of the competition, Jacob Weitering and Harris Andrews will have their hands full on Saturday night, but the correct player made the All-Australian side. Weitering is reliable, team-orientated, and is rarely beaten. Andrews, as good as he is, is quick to blame his teammates for mistakes made. Midfielders Patrick Cripps and Lachie Neale are polar opposites. Cripps at 195cm, and Neale at 178cm, play very differently, but will both be relied upon heavily by their teammates to lead the work rate. It cannot go without saying how impressive it is that Sam Docherty has made the Blues’ 23. I had the great pleasure of coaching Sam at Carlton, and he is a fantastic player and equally a tremendous person who has been dealt many types of adversity and managed to overcome them all. So, I am predicting an upset. If Carlton can get its game going early and put the clamps on Brisbane’s midfield, which it is capable of, then the Blues will advance to next week.