Every season the competition reshapes. A new contender rises, a team crashes out, and the truly elite find a way to remain great.

In 2026, one club looks ready to explode, another feels vulnerable after climbing too quickly last year, and one powerhouse could cement their legacy as one of the greatest teams.

The Riser: Gold Coast Suns

They won their first final last year, but this is the year the Gold Coast Suns properly arrive.

Damien Hardwick didn’t head north to tread water. He went to complete his legacy, and all the pieces are there.

The midfield alone is enough to make you bullish. Matt Rowell is a competitive beast in a league of his own. His best mate, Noah Anderson, provides class and composure, and knows how Rowell plays like the back of his hand as they live out their boyhood dream together.

Then there’s Touk Miller who brings an infectious effort and leadership that every team needs.

Add Christian Petracca to that mix and it becomes genuinely scary. Petracca will thrive on the Gold Coast.

He doesn’t need to shoulder the entire midfield load; he could burst from stoppage and then roll forward, exactly the way Richmond used Dustin Martin in their premiership years.

With Rowell and Anderson inside, Petracca will get the freedom to be exactly what he should be — a powerful midfielder-forward.

He’ll be surrounded by other stars and coached by the man who perfected that blueprint — it’s hard not to see it working.

Gold Coast shouldn’t just be aiming for finals. With that midfield core and a hardened coach, a top four finish is realistic.

The Fallen: Adelaide Crows

When you finish on top of the ladder, there are only two possibilities available: stay or slide.

Adelaide’s minor premiership in 2025 looked they perfected their rebuild — until September.

The harsh reality is that the only finals experience a majority of this group now has is losing. And losing badly.

Had they finished fifth or sixth and won an elimination final, the narrative would be entirely different. It would read “young Crows on the right trajectory”.

Instead, they went ahead of schedule and weren’t ready for what came next. That bad experience can linger.

The deeper concern, for me, is their leadership.

Jordan Dawson is genuinely faultless as a player. He is composed, skilled, brave, reliable — everything you want in a captain. But who helps him steer the ship on field?

You assume Taylor Walker won’t play every game this season. For the past two years, the numbers have been stark: the Crows win when Tex plays, and struggle when he doesn’t.

It’s not just his goals, it’s his guidance. He’s been the forward-line coach on the ground directing traffic, and accelerating development.

On-field coaches matter. Think Luke Hodge when he went to Brisbane — someone who teaches in real time without waiting for the runner to relay the coaching points he already knew. Say what you like about Walker, but that’s the role he has filled. His body has aged, but his mind has not. My worry is how do they win without him?

There’s undeniable talent in the team. Riley Thilthorpe is a jet, as too Darcy Fogarty. Josh Rachele is close to putting it all together, though consistency remains the question.

Izak Rankine is a game-breaker but he seems to miss a quarter of every season for varying reasons so they can’t seem to rely on him either.

This will be a side that excites when it clicks but across a 23-round season, consistency separates contenders from pretenders. Without stronger on-field leadership and with the weight of expectation now real, a drop-off could be likely.

The Stayer: Brisbane Lions

If any side is built to absorb pressure and remain at the top, it’s Brisbane.

They are a genuine chance to become the first team since the early-2000s Lions to win three straight premierships.

What stands out isn’t just talent, its their resilience.

None of their recent flag seasons have been smooth. They’ve suffered injuries, form slumps and external noise, but each season they’ve found solutions rather than excuses.

That’s the mark of not just a mature program, but a great one.

Their core remains in its prime, but the next wave makes them even more dangerous.

Logan Morris, just 20, is an unbelievable talent with goal kicking poise and who will only continue to evolve.

Then there’s Will Ashcroft. If he played in Melbourne, the hype would be at Nick Daicos levels. His composure and vision at his age are elite.

Brisbane can win in multiple ways. They can grind, they can explode, and they don’t panic with Chris Fagan putting his hand up to go alongside Hardwick and Chris Scott as the best current coaches in the league.

In 2026, expect the Suns to surge, the Crows to have question marks, and the Lions to remain exactly where they’ve grown comfortable: deep in September.