WA’s 2025 flu cases are yet to peak amid record-breaking influenza season and school holiday warning

WA’s record-breaking flu season is expected to peak during the looming school holidays after cases hit a three-year high in the first week of spring. The spike has prompted doctors and WA Health to urge Western Australians to stay home if they are unwell and get vaccinated, with jab rates also dropping significantly. More than 3200 cases were recorded in the first two weeks of September — almost triple the number during the same fortnight in 2024. The first week of September saw 1704 cases recorded in WA, the highest weekly total since winter 2022. This compared to 682 at the same time last year and totals below 300 per week in the previous three years. Cases dipped slightly to 1543 at September 14. WA Health said the prolonged high activity into spring was “unusual” and predicted the peak could come in the coming weeks. “While it is not possible to predict with confidence when influenza notifications will peak, it is expected that this will occur within the next two to three weeks,” a spokeswoman said. WA’s school holidays start next Saturday, September 27. Thirteen people have died from influenza in WA this year, two fewer than at the same time last year but below the five year average. One third of the 25,819 cases so far this year — the highest number ever seen in WA — occurred in children under 15, who are the lowest vaccinated cohort. Just 16 per cent of 5 to 11 year olds received vaccinations this year. Hospitalisations for influenza are also well above average, sitting at 3,778 compared to the five-year average of 2172. Paediatric infectious diseases clinician Professor Asha Bowen, from the Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases at The Kids Research Institute Australia, said actual influenza numbers would be far higher as the data only captured official notifications. “This is the biggest season we’ve ever recorded and it’s been going on for longer. I don’t think we’ve necessarily reached the peak,” Professor Bowen said. “There are probably a whole lot of people using RAT tests at home who aren’t counted in the numbers.” Professor Bowen, who also works at Perth Children’s Hospital, said it was not too late for people to get vaccinated, given the nature of the season, and reminded those with respiratory symptoms to stay home and test for influenza. “The flu season is at its biggest right now, so the vaccine is absolutely well needed. Everyone should be thinking about vaccines prior to travel, and measles and flu are the big two things we need to be promoting,” she said. Australian Medical Association WA President Kyle Hoath described the season as “intense” and said activity remained high later into the season than usual. “With high influenza activity and school holidays approaching, Western Australians should get vaccinated if they have not already, practise good hygiene—handwashing, covering coughs, and staying home if unwell and be vigilant, especially around children and vulnerable groups,” Dr Hoath said. Vaccination rates in WA are slightly higher across all age groups compared to 2024, but lower than the five-year average. According to the Australian Respiratory Surveillance Report, national influenza cases are higher than at the same time in previous years. The agency said this could be driven by higher case numbers in school age children, but it was too early to determine the trend. The WA Health spokeswoman said while vaccination should ideally take place before the onset of each season, people could still get vaccinated now. “While protection is generally expected to last throughout the year, the highest level of protection is in the first three to four months after influenza vaccination,” she said. “The severity and timing of the annual influenza season varies each year, making it challenging to assess the impact of vaccination programs. “What is known however, is that high immunisation coverage is the single most important measure to lessen the spread of influenza in the community.”