The Socceroos’ World Cup qualification destiny is in their own hands heading into the final two games of their campaign.

But the equation for safe passage through to the 2026 World Cup is simultaneously straight-forward and yet complex.

This is the lay of the land heading into Australia’s crucial matches against Japan in Perth on Thursday and Saudi Arabia in Jeddah next Tuesday.

Who qualifies?

The top two teams in the Asian Football Confederation’s Group C will progress directly to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, to be held in the USA, Canada and Mexico.

Third and fourth place in the group will progress to the fourth round of AFC qualifiers, which will see two groups of three play against each other once in a centralised venue, with the winners of each group qualifying for the World Cup.

This is the first time there has been a 48-team World Cup, which has opened up 16 extra spots at next year’s marquee tournament.

The state of play

With two games left, Japan have already clinched top spot and qualified for the World Cup with an unassailable total of 20 points.

The Socceroos sit second in the group on 13 points, and Saudi Arabia are third on 10 points, with Indonesia in fourth on nine.

Working in Australia’s favour is not only their three-point lead in the race for second, but also their +9 and +13 goal difference advantage over Saudi Arabia and Indonesia respectively, which would be the tiebreaker if points are shared.

What do Australia need to do?

In short, positive results (ie. avoiding a loss) in both games would see Australia through to yet another World Cup.

The Socceroos ultimately need only one win and to avoid a thrashing in their last two games to all but seal a spot at a sixth successive World Cup — a feat only 10 other countries can currently match.

A win over Japan would practically clinch qualification, but it would officially depend on the outcome of Saudi Arabia’s clash with Bahrain in the early hours of Friday morning, which slightly complicates matters.

Beating Japan in Perth would give Australia a temporary six-point lead over the Saudis.

If their rivals beat Bahrain hours later to narrow the margin back to three points, Saudi Arabia would then need to defeat Australia by roughly five goals in Jeddah to not only move level on points, but also leapfrog them on goal difference and in the standings.

A draw for Australia against Japan might even be enough to see them through, but it would depend on Saudi Arabia losing to Bahrain a few hours later and Indonesia not beating China on Thursday night to give the Socceroos an unassailable lead.

In short, two points for the Socceroos in their final two games would be enough, and Saudi Arabia need to at least equal, if not better, Australia’s result against Japan when they play Bahrain.

Indonesia need to win both of their final two games, against China and Japan, and also overhaul Australia’s goal difference to overtake the Socceroos, which appears highly unlikely.

If the tie is still live by the time the Socceroos-Saudi game rolls around next Tuesday morning, Australia would only need to avoid defeat to seal qualification.

How tough will Japan and Saudi Arabia be?

Japan have brought only a handful of their star players — only four players in their squad have played more than 40 games and only seven of the Blue Samurai’s squad have reached 10 caps — to Perth.

But the likes of Liverpool midfielder Wataru Endo and Parma goalkeeper Zion Suzuki are no slouches, and young winger Takefusa Kubo has been turning heads for Real Sociedad in Spain.

And while there are several inexperienced players in Japan’s squad by international standards, the bulk of the team play for European sides.

Saudi Arabia’s qualification campaign has not been disastrous, but it has been underwhelming — although the Socceroos needing to get a result at a hostile King Abdullah Sports City would be a tough ask.

Part of the reason an Australian win over Japan would likely all but seal World Cup qualification is the Saudis have only scored four goals in eight group games, meaning a five-goal win over the Socceroos would be something of a miracle.