RBA interest rates live updates: Reserve Bank set to hold after Iran-US peace deal ends risk of energy shock

The RBA may have decided to wait and see but with Michele Bullock ruling nothing in or out, Canstar is warning homeowners to take steps to prepare.

It was getting just 0.25 knocked off your rate could protect your finances from a further hike in August.

Here’s how to approach the negotiations:

• Check your rate: Your target, as an owner-occupier should be under 6 per cent. It’s a stretch but there are 40 lenders offering at least one variable rate under this mark.
• Check up on your own bank: See what it’s offering new customers. This 30-second check will show if you’re paying a loyalty tax.
• Arm yourself with two counter offers: This shows your bank you’re prepared to move if needed.
• Ask your bank for a rate review: Be polite, professional and precise.
• Be ready to walk: If they won’t budge, it could be time to switch to a lender willing to offer you its lowest advertised rate. Just make sure to factor in any switching fees before you make the leap

“Borrowers shouldn’t wait around hoping rates have peaked,” said Canstar’s data insights director, Sally Tindall.

“The banks are fiercely competing for new business. If you haven’t checked your rate recently, now’s the time.

“There’s every chance your lender is offering a sharper rate to new customers than the one you’re paying. A quick phone call could save you far more than waiting to see what the RBA does next.

“Finally, if you score a rate cut, try and keep your repayments where they are today so you’re chipping extra into your mortgage.”

Mortgageholders may have been looking to RBA governor Michele Bullock to confirm the worst is over after today’s pause.

They have been left disappointed.

Speaking at her regular post-rate call press conference, she said nothing could be ruled in or out given the threat of global uncertainty.

“The rates markets are doing their best to interpret what they think is coming for the economy and what we will do,” Ms Bullock said.

“I guess what I’m saying is I can’t rule out that if inflation doesn’t respond in the way we expect it to do, then we might have to doore.

“I’m just not ruling that out.”

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has welcomed the Reserve Bank’s latest decision to hold interest rates steady, saying it provides a degree of stability while broader global risks continue to weigh on the outlook.

Speaking in Brisbane, he said the result was consistent with the government’s expectations following the recent federal budget, but warned international conditions remain difficult to predict.

“We’re pleased with developments in the Middle East but we’re realistic about how long it will take for the global economy to normalise and what that means for us,” he said.

“The end of this war can’t come soon enough. Australians have already paid a really hefty price for this conflict on the other side of the world.

“In Australia, we’ve seen inflation come off a bit, but we still know that those inflationary pressures are there, made worse by the war in the Middle East and its aftermath.”

Dr Chalmers described the RBA decision as a relief for millions of borrowers.

“It doesn’t make life any easier for people but it doesn’t make life harder either.”

Read more.

Three of the big four banks aren’t expecting further hikes this year, and predict potential cuts on the cards in 2027.

Westpac is the outlier, forecasting up to two more 0.25 per cent rate increases this year.

Regardless, Compare the Market’s economic director David KochMr Koch urged Aussies to take control of their own fortunes by comparing and switching where cheaper rates are available.

“Everyone should be phoning their bank or broker to see if there’s a better offer out there,” Mr Koch said.

“We still hear about people on rates above 7 per cent when we know there are rates available in the high 5s and low 6s.

“It might not look like much, but it could reduce your monthly repayments by hundreds of dollars — potentially saving you thousands over time.”

The RBA may have spared more pain for millions of households with a mortgage, but many are still counting the cost of three consecutive hikes so far in 2026 that wiped out all relief delivered by the central bank at the end of last year.

Here’s what we’re now paying ... and how much extra it will cost if the RBA rules it’s not yet done in this cycle ...

While some rate calls by the RBA this year have been spilt among the nine-member board, today decision to keep rates unchaged at 4.35 per cent was unanimous.

The central bank said the disruption to global oil supply after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran in late Fenbruary was still having an impact on inflation.

Higher fuel prices, it said, have added directly to inflation “and there are indications that this is passing through to the prices of other goods and services”.

It warned inflation is likely to remain high for some time.

“This inflation impulse is in addition to the high inflation recorded around the start of 2026, reflecting capacity pressures in the economy,” it said.

“The board remains focused on ensuring that inflation does not become embedded once the impulse from higher oil prices has passed through.

“To achieve this, growth in demand needs to slow to reduce capacity pressures and help bring inflation back to target.”

While a peace deal is all but done, the RBA says there continue to be heightened uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation.

“Resolution of the conflict in the Middle East is at an early stage, and there are plausible scenarios where inflation is higher and activity lower than envisaged under the May baseline forecasts,” it said just minutes ago.

“Global oil supply issues will take some time to resolve, maintaining upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation.

“At the same time, a period of prolonged uncertainty may also cause growth to be lower in Australia’s major trading partners and in Australia.”

The RBA has spared stretched Australian households a fourth-straight rate hike for 2026.

The central bank today instead opted to hit pause after increases in February, March and May start to show signs of cooling an overheat economy.

It would have also breathed a sign of relief after the US and Iran finally signed a peace deal that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume the flow of oil to the global economy.

We’re just half an hour away from the RBA’s June rates call.

Stay with us as we bring you everything you need to know, including the central bank’s outlook for the road ahead ... and hints of whether we can expect more mortgage pain this year.